Welcome

This weblog generally contains three kinds of posts, to which anyone can navigate by means of the following hyperlinks:

1. Mathematically derived, highly suspect MATCH PROJECTIONS; and

2. Hastily produced, definitely unsubstantiated PROJECTED FINAL TABLES; and

3. Ninety-percent whimsical, half scientific STYLE POINT RATINGS for clubs and matches.

It’s also possible to search by competition: BUNDESLIGA / LA LIGA / LIGUE 1 / PREMIER LEAGUE / SERIE A.

Finally, click here to learn very slightly more about the present site and its author. Scroll down for latest posts.

Match Projections for Week 27 of the English Premier League

Below are the match projections for Week 27* of the English Premier League, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

*Which matchday begins today (Saturday).

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in Saturday’s Chelsea-Everton match, there appears to be about a 48% chance of a Chelsea victory, a 27% chance of victory for Everton, and another 25% chance of a draw.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

Continue reading

Projected Final Table for the English Premier League (Current Through Week 26)

Below is the projected final table for the English Premier League current through the 26th matchday of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for the EPL:

Continue reading

Match Projections for Week 26 of the English Premier League

Below are the match projections for Week 26* of the English Premier League, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

*Which matchday begins today (Tuesday).

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in Wednesday’s Arsenal-Manchester United match, there appears to be about a 47% chance of an Arsenal victory, a 28% chance of victory for United, and another 25% chance of a draw.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

Continue reading

Projected Final Table for the English Premier League (Current Through Week 25)

Below is the projected final table for the English Premier League current through the 25th matchday of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for the EPL:

Continue reading

Style Point Match Ratings for the Weekend of February 7th

Recently, in these pages, the author introduced a metric called Style Points designed to estimate roughly, on a scale of 0 to 10, the aesthetic appeal of each club currently playing in Europe’s five major leagues. Even more recently — and for no reason that makes good sense — the author introduced a method by which to utilize those ratings, in conjunction with the match projections available at this site, to estimate the likely aesthetic appeal of any match occurring within the aforementioned five European leagues.

Performing that number-magic on all the matches scheduled for this weekend in Europe’s five largest leagues yields the following results, in terms of the weekend’s top-10:

Continue reading

Match Projections for Week 25 of the English Premier League

Below are the match projections for Week 25* of the English Premier League, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

*Which matchday begins on Saturday.

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in this Saturday’s Liverpool-Arsenal match, there appears to be about a 41% chance of Liverpool victory, a 33% chance of victory for Arsenal, and another 26% chance of a draw.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

Continue reading

Projected Final Table for the English Premier League (Current Through Week 24)

Below is the projected final table for the English Premier League current through the 24th matchday of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for the EPL:

Continue reading

Style Point Match Ratings for the Weekend of January 31st

Recently, in these pages, the author introduced a metric called Style Points designed to estimate roughly, on a scale of 0 to 10, the aesthetic appeal of each club currently playing in Europe’s five major leagues. Even more recently — and for no reason that makes good sense — the author introduced a method by which to utilize those ratings, in conjunction with the match projections available at this site, to estimate the likely aesthetic appeal of any match occurring within the aforementioned five European leagues.

Performing that number-magic on all the matches scheduled for this weekend in Europe’s five largest leagues yields the following results, in terms of the weekend’s top-10:

Continue reading

Match Projections for Week 24 of the English Premier League

Below are the match projections for Week 24* of the English Premier League, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

*Which matchday begins on Saturday.

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in this week’s Manchester City-Chelsea match (on Monday), there appears to be about a 60% chance of a City victory, a 17% chance of victory for Chelsea, and another 23% chance of a draw.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

Continue reading