Below are the match projections for Week 24* of the English Premier League, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.
*Which matchday begins on Saturday.
The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.
So, for example, in this week’s Manchester City-Chelsea match (on Monday), there appears to be about a 60% chance of a City victory, a 17% chance of victory for Chelsea, and another 23% chance of a draw.
Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:
At the recent and very polite request of reader Mark, below is a second, similar table — very much the same, really, insofar as it contains within it the projected results of this weekend’s EPL matches, but also slightly different insofar as it also features the most probable score of each match, as provided by the sexy Poisson distribution utilized by the author.
Note that the odds of a match producing any one, specific final score are actually rather low. The probability of Monday’s Man City-Chelsea match finishing at 1-0, for example, is only 13.0% — and, yet, this is the most likely single outcome of the many potential ones.
Here’s that second table, then, featuring projected results and most probable outcomes:
Data from Who Scored.