Below are the match projections for Week 24* of the English Premier League, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

**Which matchday begins on Saturday.*

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The **%** symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in this week’s **Manchester City-Chelsea** match (on Monday), there appears to be about a **60%** chance of a City victory, a **17%** chance of victory for Chelsea, and another **23%** chance of a draw.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

At the recent and very polite request of reader Mark, below is a second, similar table — very much the same, really, insofar as it contains within it the projected results of this weekend’s EPL matches, but also slightly different insofar as it *also* features the **most probable score** of each match, as provided by the sexy Poisson distribution utilized by the author.

Note that the odds of a match producing any one, specific final score are actually rather low. The probability of Monday’s Man City-Chelsea match finishing at 1-0, for example, is only 13.0% — and, yet, this is the most likely single outcome of the many potential ones.

Here’s that second table, then, featuring projected results *and* most probable outcomes:

*Data from Who Scored.*

As a means of distracting myself from the writing of my Ph. D. thesis, I am investigating how well the sexy Poisson distribution predicts the final score, via the most probable outcome. For the midweek games had one put $2 on each game, rather than the hypothetical $2, which is how much I placed on each game, one could have net $20. Of note the sexy Poisson distribution nailed the Swansea vs. Fulham game (2 – 0), which “the bookies” thought would end 1-1.

On what are you writing your thesis?

Organic Materials Chemistry, with a focus on liquid crystals.

I’m curious, but also a dummy. Is there an example of a liquid crystal with which a half-intelligent person might be acquainted?

As for specific molecules derivatives for cholesterol, the non-PED type of steroid, which form helical structures not unlike those found in the bright colouration of scarab beetles. For a more typical example of liquid crystal properties the lipid bilayer of the human cell or of a soap bubble are given as classic examples. My research tends to focus more on electrical responses to some liquid crystalline phases.