Projected Final Table for the English Premier League (Current Through Week 24)

Below is the projected final table for the English Premier League current through the 24th matchday of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for the EPL:

EPL After 24

M: Matches. xGF: Expected goals for. xGA Expected goals against. xGD: Expected goal differential. PTS: Actual points to date. xPTS: Expected points to date, based on model discussed above. Diff: Difference between PTS and xPTS, where a positive number (in green) denotes “good luck”; a negative one (in red), “bad luck.” PROJ38: Projected points at end of season, calculated by adding expected points for remaining matches to present points total.

Some notes:

  • Chelsea‘s 1-0 away victory at Manchester City yesterday (Monday) hasn’t changed the order in which the clubs atop last week’s edition of the projected final table are now likely to finish; it remains City, Arsenal, and Chelsea, in that order. What it has done is to narrow City’s lead on that same final table, however — to four points (down from seven) over Arsenal and to seven points (down from nine) over Chelsea.
  • After outperforming their expected-point totals by 13, 20, and 21 points over the last three seasons, Manchester United appear, at the moment, to have underperformed their expected points total. Over that same three-year interval, United have generally outperformed their expected points by about 11 points already at this juncture in the season (i.e. after 24 matches). Adding 11 points to their present expected-points total would give the club 52 points — good for fourth place and just three points behind the leaders, Arsenal.
  • Swansea both out-possessed (65% to 35%) and out-shot (11 to 20) West Ham this past weekend in their 0-2 away loss to the London club. Of note: of those 20 shots taken by Swansea, only six were from within the box and zero of them were recorded as “on target.”

All data from Who Scored.

5 thoughts on “Projected Final Table for the English Premier League (Current Through Week 24)

  1. The sexy Poisson distribution net a theoretical $9 from a theoretical $2 wager per game, putting the running total, since the week 23 matches, at $29. For the second straight week it out performed “the bookies”.

    As an Arsenal supporter I enjoy seeing the projected 7 point gap with City fall to 4 and the lead on Chelsea extending from 2 to 3.

    I am worried that handsome Michael Laudrup has been given the dreaded vote of confidence at Swansea. I think he is an excellent manager and Swansea would be hard pressed to attract a better one. I think, and hope, their fortunes will improve when Michu is fully fit.

    • A more enterprising person than myself might — and perhaps has, already — record the time (in days or months, I suppose) is sacked AFTER which a manager receives the vote of confidence.

      But, agreed: I hope the sacking part doesn’t happen to Laudrup. The quality of football at that club is excellent relative to the market value of the talent.

      • Approximately two days appears to be the answer, rather unfortunately, regarding handsome Michael Laudrup.

  2. What if Mourinho pips Pellegrini to the title? Then your projections are not a 100 % true, are they?
    These kinds of silly predictions are for people who don’t watch the game. They are just for people who are mad about stats.

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