Below is the projected final table for the English Premier League current through the 24th matchday of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.
The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.
Here’s the updated, projected final table for the EPL:
M: Matches. xGF: Expected goals for. xGA Expected goals against. xGD: Expected goal differential. PTS: Actual points to date. xPTS: Expected points to date, based on model discussed above. Diff: Difference between PTS and xPTS, where a positive number (in green) denotes “good luck”; a negative one (in red), “bad luck.” PROJ38: Projected points at end of season, calculated by adding expected points for remaining matches to present points total.
- Chelsea‘s 1-0 away victory at Manchester City yesterday (Monday) hasn’t changed the order in which the clubs atop last week’s edition of the projected final table are now likely to finish; it remains City, Arsenal, and Chelsea, in that order. What it has done is to narrow City’s lead on that same final table, however — to four points (down from seven) over Arsenal and to seven points (down from nine) over Chelsea.
- After outperforming their expected-point totals by 13, 20, and 21 points over the last three seasons, Manchester United appear, at the moment, to have underperformed their expected points total. Over that same three-year interval, United have generally outperformed their expected points by about 11 points already at this juncture in the season (i.e. after 24 matches). Adding 11 points to their present expected-points total would give the club 52 points — good for fourth place and just three points behind the leaders, Arsenal.
- Swansea both out-possessed (65% to 35%) and out-shot (11 to 20) West Ham this past weekend in their 0-2 away loss to the London club. Of note: of those 20 shots taken by Swansea, only six were from within the box and zero of them were recorded as “on target.”
All data from Who Scored.