Below is the projected final table for the English Premier League current through the 25th matchday of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.
The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.
Here’s the updated, projected final table for the EPL:
M: Matches. xGF: Expected goals for. xGA Expected goals against. xGD: Expected goal differential. PTS: Actual points to date. xPTS: Expected points to date, based on model discussed above. Diff: Difference between PTS and xPTS, where a positive number (in green) denotes “good luck”; a negative one (in red), “bad luck.” PROJ38: Projected points at end of season, calculated by adding expected points for remaining matches to present points total.
- Following their very substantial loss away to Liverpool over the weekend, Arsenal‘s place on the projected final table has changed about as much as possible over the course of one matchday — from second place last week (and three points ahead of Chelsea) to third place this one (and a single point behind Chelsea).
- While it’s possible that the installation of new manager Garry Monk is somehow responsible for Swansea‘s authoritative victory over Cardiff, it’s more likely an instance of positive regression: entering the weekend, the club were tied with West Brom for the largest negative differential between expected and actual points.
- That Swansea victory, in conjunction with a Newcastle loss, have served to lessen the 10-point gap that existed between the two clubs (at tenth- and ninth-place, respectively) on last week’s edition of the projected final table.
All data from Who Scored.