Match Projections for Week 26 of the English Premier League

Below are the match projections for Week 26* of the English Premier League, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

*Which matchday begins today (Tuesday).

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in Wednesday’s Arsenal-Manchester United match, there appears to be about a 47% chance of an Arsenal victory, a 28% chance of victory for United, and another 25% chance of a draw.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

EPL Matches for 26

At the recent and very polite request of reader Mark, below is a second, similar table — very much the same, really, insofar as it contains within it the projected results of this weekend’s EPL matches, but also slightly different insofar as it also features the most probable score of each match, as provided by the sexy Poisson distribution utilized by the author.

Note that the odds of a match producing any one, specific final score are actually rather low. The probability of Wednesday’s Arsenal-United match finishing at 1-1, for example, is just 12.0% — and, yet, this is the most likely single outcome of the many potential ones.

Here’s that second table, then, featuring projected results and most probable outcomes:

EPL Matches for 26 Long

Data from Who Scored.

One thought on “Match Projections for Week 26 of the English Premier League

  1. It was not, what some might describe as, “a bender weekend” for the sexy Poisson distribution. It, like “the bookies”, went 0 – 10 on their most probable score projections. That leaves the hypothetical wagerer at a net of $9 dollars, if they had bet a similarly hypothetical $2 on each match, over the last three match days. Looking at the midweek projections I have a feeling that the sexy Poisson distribution will bounce back!

    I am excited for the Arsenal vs. Man Utd game, although I do fear a lack of invention and number of drab crosses from the visitors. The aesthetic appeal of the game, as with the case of all Arsenal games, in my opinion, is slightly less important than the result.

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