Projected Final Table for the English Premier League (Current Through Week 26)

Below is the projected final table for the English Premier League current through the 26th matchday of same and calculated in much the same manner as the other projected final tables which have appeared in these electronic pages.

The precise methodology for these entirely scientific tables is discussed here. Generally speaking, however, what the author has done is to calculate from three variables — shots taken in the box, shots conceded in the box, and possession rate (all of which correlate rather strongly with season-end performance) — a league-specific algorithm for estimating points. That the author is an imbecile also oughtn’t be ignored.

Here’s the updated, projected final table for the EPL:

EPL After 26

M: Matches. xGF: Expected goals for. xGA Expected goals against. xGD: Expected goal differential. PTS: Actual points to date. xPTS: Expected points to date, based on model discussed above. Diff: Difference between PTS and xPTS, where a positive number (in green) denotes “good luck”; a negative one (in red), “bad luck.” PROJ38: Projected points at end of season, calculated by adding expected points for remaining matches to present points total.

Some notes:

  • Draws for Chelsea and Arsenal during the last matchday — in combination with a postponement for Manchester City — dropped the former two clubs a point further behind City on the projected final table relative to last week’s iteration of same.
  • A draw for Manchester United, in conjunction with a Southampton victory away, halved the latter club’s deficit behind the former, from six to three points, relative to last week’s projected final table.
  • Despite a relatively positive result, i.e. their 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea, West Brom remain the league’s “unluckiest” club, as it were, having underperformed their projection by 14 points.

All data from Who Scored.

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