Match Projections for Week 27 of the English Premier League

Below are the match projections for Week 27* of the English Premier League, calculated in much the same manner as the other match projections which appear in these electronic pages.

*Which matchday begins today (Saturday).

The methodology utilized to produce these figures is presented here. In brief, however, what the author has done is to utilize a hot expected goals formula in combination with a sexy Poisson distribution to calculate the probability of every possible scoring outcome between the clubs playing this weekend. The % symbol in the table represents the likelihood of the three relevant outcomes in each match.

So, for example, in Saturday’s Chelsea-Everton match, there appears to be about a 48% chance of a Chelsea victory, a 27% chance of victory for Everton, and another 25% chance of a draw.

Here’s the complete table of this week’s match projections:

EPL Matches for 27

At the recent and very polite request of reader Mark, below is a second, similar table — very much the same, really, insofar as it contains within it the projected results of this weekend’s EPL matches, but also slightly different insofar as it also features the most probable score of each match, as provided by the sexy Poisson distribution utilized by the author.

Note that the odds of a match producing any one, specific final score are actually rather low. The probability of Saturday’s Chelsea-Everton match finishing at 1-1, for example, is just 12.0% — and, yet, this is the most likely single outcome of the many potential ones.

Here’s that second table, then, featuring projected results and most probable outcomes:

EPL Matches for 27 Extended

Data from Who Scored.

One thought on “Match Projections for Week 27 of the English Premier League

  1. The projections went 3/8 last week since two matches were cancelled due to inclement weather, netting a theoretical $26 on a theoretical $2 bet per match, assuming that the $4 wagered on the cancelled matches were refunded. This means that over 4 match days the sexy Poisson distribution has net $35.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s